Image of the president of the USA Donald Trump. Photo credit: Trump Mandel Ngan AFP via Getty Images

US President Donald Trump’s state visit to the United Kingdom this week is already shaping up to be controversial, echoing his first trip six years ago.

During that 2019 visit, Trump famously clashed with London Mayor Sadiq Khan, backed Boris Johnson in the Conservative leadership race, and suggested that the NHS could be included in trade talks. His presence triggered mass protests, a petition signed by more than a million people, and the now-iconic “Trump Baby” balloon.

This week’s two-day visit — unprecedented for a non-royal to receive twice — is expected to bring a similar mix of pageantry and controversy. Protests are being organised, while the dismissal of Lord Mandelson as UK ambassador to Washington has already cast a shadow over preparations.

Planning for the visit has been underway for months, with security tightened around Windsor Castle, where most of the ceremonial events will take place. Locals have dubbed the heavily guarded area “Trumpton” due to the vast American presence. The programme includes a carriage procession, a state banquet at St George’s Hall, and performances highlighting Trump’s Scottish heritage.

More than 1,300 troops and 120 horses are being mobilised, a larger ceremonial contingent than for French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit earlier this year. For King Charles III and palace officials, attention has focused on every detail, from seating arrangements to banquet speeches, to avoid any diplomatic missteps.

Despite the emphasis on pomp, serious business is also on the agenda. On Thursday, Trump will meet Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer at Chequers. Talks are expected to centre on removing US tariffs on UK steel and aluminium, expanding civil nuclear cooperation, and signing a new technology partnership covering artificial intelligence and quantum computing.

The visit also gives Britain an opportunity to influence Trump’s foreign policy stance, particularly on Ukraine, NATO, and sanctions on Russian oil buyers. Analysts say the timing is crucial as the US administration shifts from early disruption toward international positioning ahead of domestic elections.

But pitfalls remain. Mandelson’s departure over ties to Jeffrey Epstein could raise uncomfortable questions for the government. Differences between the UK and US on Middle East policy, particularly Britain’s expected recognition of Palestinian statehood, may also cause friction.

Underlying it all is Trump’s low popularity in the UK—with only 16% of Britons holding a positive view of him—and concerns that the monarchy is being used too explicitly for political purposes. Official state visits by US presidents are rare, with only three before Trump’s: George W. Bush in 2003, Barack Obama in 2011, and Trump himself in 2019.

For Downing Street, the goal is clear: ensure Air Force One departs with Trump in a positive mood and Britain is seen as America’s closest ally. But even with meticulous planning, the risks of diplomatic missteps and political backlash remain high.