Dangote refinery

Amid speculation that the federal government may impose a ban on fuel importation in support of local refining, oil marketers have raised concerns that petrol prices could surge to as high as ₦1,500 per litre. The warning, issued by representatives of major petroleum marketing associations, has sparked fresh debate around domestic refining capacity and fears of monopoly within the downstream sector.

Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), cautioned that removing importation as a market check could embolden local refiners to inflate prices. “If Dangote becomes the sole supplier, price control becomes difficult. We fear petrol could rise to ₦1,500 per litre,” Ukadike said, urging President Tinubu not to restrict importation.

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) echoed similar concerns. Its president, Billy Gillis-Harry, said while PETROAN would not speculate on specific prices, a ban on imports could destabilise the market. “The market must not rely on a single source for fuel. We need multiple suppliers to ensure price competition and availability,” he stated.

However, officials from the 650,000 650,000bpd Dangote Refinery dismissed the projections as fear-mongering by marketers who wish to maintain control of importation. “It’s illogical to say prices will jump from ₦890 to ₦1,500. These claims are not based on market realities but on attempts to protect substandard fuel importation,” a Dangote official told The PUNCH in confidence.

The refinery maintains that it has the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand and even export surplus volumes to neighbouring countries. Dangote executives argue that their pricing is tied to global crude prices and exchange rates, not speculation or profiteering.

Meanwhile, the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) indicated that new government policies, such as crude-for-naira deals and falling crude prices, could reduce fuel prices further. CORAN’s spokesperson, Eche Idoko, projected petrol prices could drop below ₦700 per litre under favourable market conditions.

Policy analysts also weighed in on the controversy. Dr Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, dismissed fears of a Dangote monopoly, saying other players should focus on revitalising existing refineries. “If NNPC’s four refineries were working, there would be real competition. Blaming Dangote while others sit idle isn’t the solution,” he argued.

As the conversation continues, marketers urge the government to incentivise local refining without blocking fuel imports, while Dangote refinery insists its operation will benefit the economy, not exploit consumers. With local production on the rise, the government’s next move could determine the future of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum landscape.