US President Donald Trump

The recent imposition of a 14% tariff on Nigerian exports by U.S. President Donald Trump poses a serious threat to the $10 billion annual trade between Nigeria and the United States. The policy, which is part of Trump’s broader protectionist strategy aimed at reviving U.S. industries, has raised concerns among trade experts and economic stakeholders, who fear it could disrupt key sectors of Nigeria’s economy, particularly oil and agriculture.

Although crude oil exports — Nigeria’s main export to the U.S. — may not be directly affected due to exemptions on energy products, analysts warn that the ripple effects of a global trade war could reduce overall demand and depress oil prices. This could significantly weaken Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and undermine economic stability.

The tariff regime also threatens non-oil exports such as cocoa and rubber while making imported goods like wheat and vehicles more expensive, contributing to inflation and reducing the purchasing power of consumers. Experts argue that the new U.S. policy is a shift away from decades of free trade and could damage global supply chains, slow manufacturing activity, and raise the cost of goods and services worldwide.

Nigeria’s economic ties with the U.S., particularly under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), have historically been dominated by oil exports, with over $277 billion worth of goods exported since 2000. The new tariffs could severely impact this trade relationship, with fears that AGOA’s benefits may effectively be rolled back.

While some analysts see opportunities for Nigeria to build new trade partnerships and focus on industrial growth, others emphasise the urgent need for internal economic reforms, especially in areas like energy, infrastructure, and value-added production. Without these reforms, Nigeria risks greater vulnerability to external shocks and long-term economic challenges.