The World Bank has projected a grim outlook for Nigeria’s poverty rate, warning that more Nigerians are expected to fall into extreme poverty by 2027 despite the country’s abundance of natural resources.

This projection was revealed in the World Bank’s Africa Pulse report, released during the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. The report highlights that sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the highest rate of extreme poverty globally, housing around 80% of the world’s 695 million extremely poor people as of 2024.

According to the World Bank, nearly half of sub-Saharan Africa’s 560 million extreme poor reside in just four countries, with Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo topping the list. Both countries are classified as resource-rich yet fragile, a combination the World Bank says is consistently linked to worsening poverty levels.

The report states that poverty in these fragile, resource-rich countries is expected to rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027. This would make them the only group in the region experiencing a poverty increase. The average poverty rate in such countries was 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in more stable resource-rich countries.

While non-resource-rich, non-fragile countries in Africa have made the most progress in poverty reduction since 2000, Nigeria continues to struggle due to weak institutions and recurring conflict.

The report also noted the role of urbanisation in poverty reduction, explaining that while most of Africa’s poor still reside in rural areas, the continent’s fast-growing cities offer potential economic opportunities. By 2035, Africa’s urban population is expected to surpass its rural population, but the World Bank warns that without adequate infrastructure and employment opportunities, the gains of urban migration may not materialise.